The Difficult Art of Finlandization

In a previous issue of Foreign Affairs (January/February), Bruce Gilley argued that Taiwan was well under way towards Finlandization the rather unique Finnish foreign policy model developed during the Cold War. In the current issue of Foreign Affairs (May/June 2010 pp. 128 – 133), a special section has been devoted to discussing the issue.
 
Hans Mouritzen from DIIS contributes with a piece on "The Difficult Art of Finlandization". Although his own theory of Finlandization was fairly well applied by Gilley, Mouritzen argues that Gilley paints an excessively rosy picture of this type of foreign policy. He does not share Gilley's view that Taiwan will actively choose the Finlandization option by discreetely pushing its US ally aside. Finlandization may be necessary for a nation to make the best out of a difficult situation, but no small power today will voluntarily discard a reasonable alliance option and limit its room to maneuver in the way required by Finlandization. Taiwan is already pursuing a détente policy in line with West Germany’s Ostpolitik which took place within the Cold War NATO framework but that should not be mistaken for Finlandization. Nonetheless, Finlandization may eventually come to the Taiwan Strait, but only if an overburdened United States decides to reduce its future role in Asia, thus creating a wholly new regional environment. Then it will be a Washington rather than a Taipei decision.

To read the whole piece, together with Bruce Gilley's response to Hans Mouritzen, consult the hard copy of Foreign Affairs being out now, or the online version that will be available in two months.