Status by DIIS one year after the Caucasus war in early August 2008

On 4 August 2009, Hans Mouritzen, Karsten Jakob Møller and Jørgen Staun publish ‘Krigen i Kaukasus 2008. Baggrund, dynamik og internationale perspektiver’ (DIIS Working Paper 2009:12)(Only in Danish). The war in Caucasus from 7. to 12. August 2008 gave rise to forceful international reactions and made commentators talk about the possibility of a ‘New Cold War’ between Russia and the West and the ‘return of history’ (the fall of the Berlin Wall allegedly being the ‘end of history’). At the time of writing, this pessimistic scenario seems not very likely; however, it is still disputed between Russia and Georgia, who should be blamed for the initiation of war events. In this publication, we seek to clarify that along with the more complex historical background of events. The decision-making process in both Tbilisi and Moscow is analysed, and the Western diversified reactions to the conflict are described and explained. Finally, a status is made one year after the war.

Dr. Hans Mouritzen heads foreign policy research at DIIS, Karsten Møller is a major general and a DIIS senior analyst, whereas Jørgen Staun, ph.d., is a DIIS project researcher.

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