From collaboration partner to security threat

Only a few years ago, China was still seen as a strategic collaboration partner that European governments eagerly courted to cultivate stronger bilateral relations. Since 2019, however, we have seen a dramatic shift in perceptions of China as security-related concerns and sensitive political topics have come to dominate bilateral relations with Beijing.

Conducting a comprehensive comparative case study, this DIIS Report by Andreas Bøje Forsby investigates emerging threat perceptions of China among six liberal small states in the Baltic Sea region: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden. Based on their annual official threat assessments, the report demonstrates how these countries are becoming increasingly concerned about the Chinese government’s assertive measures to exert `opinion control´ in other countries and its capacity to exercise control over critical infrastructure, notably digital communication networks. Exploring more specifically the approach adopted by each of these countries to the risks/threat posed by the Chinese tech giant Huawei, the report documents how they, with the exception of Finland, have resorted to various types of extraordinary measures to prevent China from having any potential influence on their critical digital infrastructure.

In addition to emerging threat perceptions, the report examines how bilateral relations between the six Nordic-Baltic countries and China are also currently being disrupted by the resurgence of human rights and other sensitive political issues. Notably since 2019, the Chinese government’s systematic human rights violations have become a major shared concern among the Nordic-Baltic countries, highlighting fundamental differences of political systems and eroding political trust between the two sides. Tracing these developments across the six countries, it is argued that the overall deterioration of bilateral relations has been primarily prompted by the fundamental shift in US China policy in 2018 and the hardening of the Chinese regime under Xi Jinping. Taken together, China is therefore increasingly viewed in adversarial terms by the six countries investigated in this report.