Trump’s Argentine plan for transition sabotage

What might a rocky transition of power in the United States look like in the weeks ahead? What can President Donald Trump do to harm the United States on his way out of the White House? Might he actually retire to his many golf resorts or lay the ground to run again for president in 2024?

These are all questions Americans and people around the world are weighing as former Vice President Joseph Biden’s victory in the 2020 U.S. presidential election appears all but locked up.

But with no examples of a modern U.S. president refusing a smooth transition of power, it is instructive to look beyond the United States’ borders for answers. Argentina’s 2015 presidential transition from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to Mauricio Macri offers some hints of what might be coming. From last-minute government spending to bitter court battles, the outcome isn’t pretty.

DIIS senior researcher Luke Patey argues in an article for Foreign Policy that Argentina’s transition of power five years ago offers some answers for what comes next in the United States. In the weeks ahead, members of Biden’s team should be wary of focusing too much attention on how they intend to shape domestic and foreign policy in the years to come. Instead, they should stay clear-eyed about the here and now, and what they can do to limit attempts by the Trump administration to block or frustrate entry into the White House, or to gain full access to information about what the Trump administration was up to. 

President Trump and his supporters in the Republican Party might also glean something from Argentina’s transition. If Trump continues to make moves that further destabilize U.S. politics, he may ultimately undermine his chances of returning to the White House one day.

Trump won nearly 48 percent of the popular vote at time of writing, but nearly 80 percent of Americans see Biden as the rightful winner of the election. The writing is on the wall, but Trump was never a keen reader. He may maintain a strong base to push him to the top of a future Republican primary, but if Trump’s last days in office become completely unhinged, his ability to win the general election will diminish.

In any case, a tumultuous transition of power in the United States might continue as everyday politics for years to come.