Threat perceptions and security interests in the Turkey-EU relationship

As noted by Wolfgang Ischinger when introducing the February 2017 Munich Security Conference, 2017 promises to be a year of maximum uncertainty. This is an apt premonition for the ever more conflicted relationship between Europe and Turkey, not least within the area of threat perceptions and security interests. A new paper by DIIS researcher Jacob Lindgaard and others concludes that in contrast to the Cold War period, there is now more that separates than unites Turkey and the EU in terms of threat perceptions and security interests, and spells out how this has come about.

The paper “The Evolution of the EU’s and Turkey’s Security Interests, Threat Perceptions and Discourse” presents an analysis of the key events, developments and dynamics that have driven the relationship between Turkey and EU within the field of security since WWII, with a special focus on the post-1999 period. This period is marked by both centripetal and centrifugal forces, from the centripetal forces of the Cold War when Turkey and the EU had similar security interests, to the centrifugal forces of perceived terror threats and divergent security interests in Syria today. The paper assesses that the centripetal forces are growing and are likely to grow ever more salient to the detriment of Turkey’s and Europe’s alignment on Security issues.

The paper is part of the larger FEUTURE research project that DIIS is engaged in where researchers from a number of Universities and Think Tanks in Europe, Turkey, Georgia, Iraq, and Egypt systematically attempt to identify the key drivers within key areas of Turkey-EU relations that underpin the development of the relationship in those areas.