The world’s oceans are a historical stage for modern power plays

In an online comment, Researcher Jessica Larsen points to a recent development, where new intervention actors from Asia and the Middle East are increasing their support to security and economic growth in the Horn of Africa. In particular, China, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are seeking alliances with states such as Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti.

The comment explains how new actors, in the wake of international counter-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia from 2008-2016, entered the African stage to contribute to maritime security in the Indian Ocean. This was an intervention dominated by conventional naval powers, such as the US, UK, France and Denmark. Being states with major trade and energy exports by sea, the new actors’ stakes in the security of these waters are clear. However, their engagement rapidly shifted to more long-term interventions in the Horn, in particular within critical infrastructure (targeting trade and economic growth) and the defence (targeting peace and security). Yet for the benefit of whom?

While the broadening of interventions in the Horn of Africa is a welcome contribution to the development and prosperity of a region stricken by poverty and conflict, Jessica Larsen draws attention to some of the secondary effects it may have. Central is how the external policy blend of security and economic interests in the Horn of Africa may destabilise the fragile geopolitical balance in an already volatile region. It knocks off balance the traditional Western alliances with the Indian Ocean region and suggests that the future of ocean governance will imply navigating old and new agendas of power. This is a development that conventional donors with historical presence and interest in the region should account for in policy planning.

The comment is part of a series on emerging issues hosted by the UK-based consultancy, Global Security and Disaster Management Limited (GSDM).