The collapse of a state

In this new article in Small Wars and Insurgencies, Maria-Louise Clausen argues that the current conflict in Yemen is better understood as a competition over who controls the state, rather than as a conflict between the state and a non-state actor.

The article traces the political development of the Houthi movement from a small revivalist group to a mass movement that was able to position itself as an alternative to a defunct internationally backed government and ultimately take control of the Yemeni capital and state institutions. Despite heavy bombardments and a crippling blockade of a country that imported 90% of its basic food staples before the crisis, the Saudi-led coalition has so far failed to push the Houthis out of the capital. Instead, the Yemeni population is caught between the Houthis that appear increasingly repressive and the Saudi-led coalition that shows little respect for Yemeni civilian lives.

In this analysis, it is shown that the yearlong conflict in Yemen has resulted in a complete fragmentation of an already weak state. Local strongmen and external actors, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are now involved in localized struggles over access to resources and power. It is argued that the tendency to focus on the regional aspect of internal conflicts hampers effective conflict resolution. Whereas regional actors has certainly complicated and exacerbated the conflict, making an end to the Saudi-led intervention into Yemen a pre-requisite for peace, it will not in itself ensure peace. Instead, the international approach to peace negotiations as requiring the surrender of an illegitimate non-state actor to see the reinstatement of the legitimate president overestimates the relevance of the internationally recognized president and builds on simplistic understandings of Yemen.