DIIS Report

Defecting soldiers are a significant symbolic blow to Myanmar´s military rule

motivations and obstacles following the 2021 military coup

Since Myanmar’s military leaders staged a coup on 1 February 2021, an estimated 2,000 soldiers have defected and joined the ‘people’s side’ in opposing military rule. These defectors refuse to be complicit in the violent crackdowns and killings of civilians by the military, also known as the Tatmadaw, which by November 2021 has led to over 1,260 deaths. Arguably, the number of defectors is low compared to the estimated 300-350,000 strong Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), and so far, there are no signs that the defections have created major splits in the military organization or changed the military leaders’ course of action. Nonetheless, defections constitute a significant symbolic blow to the Tatmadaw’s internal coherence and legitimacy. The degree to which defectors have organised themselves and aligned with the pro-democracy opposition is also unprecedented in Myanmar’s history.

This report by Myanmar researcher Ah Lynn and DIIS senior researcher Helene Maria Kyed, explores the drivers and obstacles to defection since the coup. It does so by bringing forth the voices of those defectors who have spoken up about their defection, drawing on a wide set of data collected between May and October 2021. Knowing why some soldiers have left the army and why others stay, is paramount for any discussion of the prospects for larger scale defections, which could prove to have a significant impact on the Tatmadaw’s course of action, its internal coherence, and its operational capacity.

The report argues that moral concerns regarding the military’s violence against civilians after the coup has been a key motivating factor, but defections are also driven by a deep demoralisation with what defectors see as an unjust, corrupt, and internally exploitative military organisation. The support mechanisms, exit options, and alternative visions of order proclaimed by the civilian opposition to the coup and propagated by active groups of defected soldiers also play an increasingly important role in motivating defections. Social media and online information flows are here significant and present an important difference from previous military coups and mass popular uprisings. Yet there are also pervasive obstacles to defection, which are intrinsically woven into the fabric of the Tatmadaw’s long tradition of nurturing internal cohesion and loyalty – e.g., through ideological programming, isolation, hierarchical patron-client relations and a system of commands, benefits, and punishments. Soldiers also fear the high security risks of defecting, including the dangers that their family members would face if they left the military.

The report concludes that to cultivate more defections requires not only ensuring that defectors get protection and livelihood assurances after they defect, but that campaigns are also able to make military personnel question the nationalist military ideology that conveys the Tatmadaw as the guardian of the nation and the Buddhist religion. Trust-building in the opposition’s promises of a new alternative order and a reformed military organisation with viable futures for the military personnel who defect, is in this context very crucial for envisioning the prospects for large-scale defections in Myanmar.

Regions
Myanmar

DIIS Experts

Helene Maria Kyed
Peace and violence
Senior Researcher
+45 4096 3309
Cover for report about soldier defections
Soldier Defections in Myanmar
motivations and obstacles following the 2021 military coup