Cooperation or conflict in the Arctic: A Literature Review

Mikkel Runge Olesen reviews the literature on conflict potential in the Arctic region. The literature can basically be divided into two camps: “The Warners” and “The Reassurers”.

The first group sees conflict as quite possible or even probable, spurred on by competition over resources, sailing routes or security dilemmas.

The second group, the "Reassurers”, sees conflict as unlikelysince most accessible resources have already been divided, and due to the fact that the Arctic countries have so far managed to solve their conflicts peacefully using international law.

On these parameters, the Working Paper argues, there are good reasons to be optimistic, as developments in the Arctic have generally fit better with the predictions from the"Reassurers” than with those of the “Warners”.

Recent developments regarding Ukraine however,, especially the latest rounds of sanctions against Russian drilling in the Arctic,seems to highlight anew category ofthreaths to the stability of the region. This has primarily been treated by scholars falling in between the two camps: namely the dangers of spill-over, both from domestic politics, but also, as we see today, from high politics elsewhere on the globe. The challenges are not, however, insurmountable, especially if the sanctions related to Ukraine do not become long-term.