New threats and forms of conflict The structural change in the international system at the end of the Cold War did not result in a new peaceful world order. Instead we face new and different threats and address other forms of conflict. Conflicts of various sorts remain therefore a serious issue everywhere, including in Europe. New global and local threats to security emerge as a result of profound changes within states, the international system and the global environment. Open and interdependent societies are vulnerable to threats to their economic foundations and to both global and local infrastructures. For that reason threats, such as attacks on energy supply, shipping, cyber-infrastructure and national transport hubs, may have devastating effects. The problem is that attacks on soft targets can be launched with limited means by a variety of actors, who are operating in a globalized world with easy access to technologies that can inflict major damage. Furthermore, indirectly, the effects of weak and failing states and resource conflicts from far a field may impact directly on our security as threats in the form of terrorism, ethnic conflicts and resource conflicts. These “new” conflicts, may have many different kinds of actors, such as guerrilla fighters, militias, pirates, terrorists, private military or security companies, alongside a wide range of non-armed actors, such as humanitarian agencies, non-governmental organisations and private commercial companies, either seeking to mitigate the conflict, assist the victims, or to make money. The “new” conflicts also arise from a wide variety of reasons: some arise from religious and ethnic reasons, others from resource or political reasons. Whatever the reasons, the victims are predominantly civilians who are either the direct targets, or who suffer the consequences of the conflict. We investigate what the new threats are and how we protect ourselves against them. In so doing we pay particular attention to who these actors are, how and why the conflicts arise, and what their consequences are, and not least how they may be solved – or better still – prevented? |
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