The uncertainty of US-Russian relations

Following a number of spectacular campaign statements, US President-elect Donald Trump is ready to re-set the US-Russian relationship. Russian politicians have given this development a warm welcome and expressed high hopes for the future. Specific expectations are lower, however, as Russian observers also question the extent to which Trump’s far-reaching foreign policy announcements will actually be implemented.

Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned Trump on 14 November to congratulate him and to establish a personal connection. A meeting between the two seems set for the very near future. Putin will use the opportunity to get a clearer impression of Trump’s view on the future world order and of the action space, which the president-elect will allow Russian to enjoy. Russia under Putin has fought hard to gradually increase its action space. But if Trump reduces US involvement in a number of regional theatres, such as Ukraine or the Middle East, the Kremlin may suddenly have more opportunities to leave its desired mark on regional developments.

Putin clearly hopes to for a free hand to keep the present Syrian regime in place in exchange for an uncompromising fight against the Islamic State. He also hopes that reduced US commitment to Europe will give him a freer hand to influence the future development of Ukraine and other neighbouring states in Eastern Europe.